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Weekly Cash Commentary
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Will the relief rally — and fragile Iran ceasefire — hold?
4 minute read
Bond markets gave up gains during Q1 as inflation concerns outweighed risk-off instincts.
7 minute read
But will the Iran conflict weigh on employment in the coming weeks?
Assets sent to the money markets due to the Iran conflict might stay for the yields.
Oil prices prompt a drastic shift in expectations for global central bank policy.
Much depends on how long the Strait of Hormuz is blocked during the Iran conflict.
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Will its next policy move be another pause, a cut or a hike? It depends.
Bond yields climb to cap a volatile week
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A potential 'chair pro tempore' and the criminal probe dominated the Fed's policy-setting meeting.
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If the Iran war does not derail it, the US economy should remain strong.
Rise in oil prices might goose inflation just as the US labor market appears to be weakening.
Inflation and private credit concerns offset accelerating US growth.
Yields have descended since the peak of 2023 but may settle at more competitive levels than before that spike.
10 minute read
US bond markets are relatively stable in the face of potential disruption.
US labor market was strong across the board in January.
Equity rally broadens out amid positive January Barometer.
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Yield curve dynamics may be in flux once Warsh is in office.
From a subpoena to a nomination, the Fed dominated the financial headlines.
Policy fog now begins to lift after this week's rate-cut pause.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell stuck to the script at the FOMC meeting yesterday.
With attractive yields and solid credit, demand for corporate bonds continues to be strong.
We think GDP growth could reach 3.3% in 2026.
If the future keeps bond investors awake at night, the present is complicated too.
But midterm elections and Fed leadership transition could spark volatility.
Data-dependent bond markets shrugged off uncertainty to end a strong year.
The federal government shutdown is not the same as it reaching the debt limit.
Trump’s pressure on the Fed notwithstanding, the money markets have much to celebrate.
Fed holds rates, and Chair Powell sidesteps President Trump's pressure.
In the wake of the passing of Trump’s signature bill, reducing the federal debt requires out-of-the-box thinking.
Chair Powell on the hot seat.
Stocks are on a tear, but investors may consolidate gains.
The strong labor report for June likely keeps the Fed on pause in July.
Facing criticism and uncertainty, Fed Chair Powell makes things worse by dismissing the SEP.
Stocks mount powerful rebound despite policy concerns.
Central bank waiting for fiscal and geopolitical policy developments to unfold before cutting rates.
Storm clouds on the horizon, but confidence is rebounding.
With inflation under control, the Fed should cut rates twice later this year.
The question: Has Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating impacted money market funds?
Trump's attacks make it harder for the Fed Chair to steer the economy through the storm.